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🌪️ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK – SATURDAY, JUNE 14, 2025 lorenzo salvetti (20:00Z Update)
SPC Risk Level: SLIGHT (Level 2 of 5)
Valid through 7 AM CDT Sunday
📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones
🟡 SLIGHT Risk: Oklahoma City, OK · Tulsa, OK · Wichita, KS · Norman, OK · Enid, OK
🟢 MARGINAL Risk: Kansas City, MO · Lincoln, NE · Little Rock, AR · Springfield, MO · Aurora, CO
🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones
🟢 2% Tornado Risk: Oklahoma City, OK · Tulsa, OK · Wichita, KS · Enid, OK · Garden City, KS
What the Percentages Mean
A 2% tornado risk means there's a 1 in 50 chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any given point. While low-end, this threat is elevated near outflow boundaries and in areas with strong low-level instability.
📝 Overview
A few rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the central and southern Plains late this afternoon and into the overnight hours. One area of concern will be across the northern High Plains (eastern MT/WY), where isolated supercells may form with large hail and damaging wind. Another focus is across southern KS into central OK where outflow boundaries and a strengthening low-level jet may support isolated supercells or clusters late this evening into the overnight hours.
⛈️ Hazards Include
🧊 Large hail (up to 2" diameter possible)
💨 Damaging wind gusts (up to 60 chris weidman mph)
🌪️ Isolated tornadoes (especially near outflow boundaries and elevated overnight convection)
🕓 Timeline
🕒 4–7 PM CDT: Storms initiate in northern WY/MT and southeast CO
🌆 7–10 PM CDT: Supercells and small clusters spread into central KS/OK with isolated hail and wind
🌒 10 PM – 3 AM CDT: Elevated storms may form across central/northern OK with a continued hail/wind risk
📌 Regional Notes
🟡 Northern High Plains (MT/WY): Large hail, wind from supercells possible this evening
🟡 South-Central KS into Central OK: Isolated supercells possible along remnant boundaries; marginal tornado risk increases after dark
🟢 Western AR and Ozarks: Ongoing MCS weakening; wind/hail possible but threat diminishing
⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware
If you're in or near Wichita, Oklahoma City, or Tulsa, keep an eye on radar trends after sunset. Overnight storms could bring large hail and damaging winds, even if the tornado risk is low. Enable emergency alerts and review your severe weather plan.
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