Plaid Cymru has jumped ahead to be the predicted largest party in the Senedd Election according to the latest ITV Cymru Wales opinion poll.
The findings, released two days before polls open, show Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party with 33% of the vote share, four percentage points ahead of Reform UK at 29%.
According to MRP modelling by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales in partnership with Cardiff University, under the new d’Hondt voting system, this round of results means Plaid Cymru would win 43 seats and Reform would gerry cardinale take 34.
Although this is just one scenario, it demonstrates how a small vote share increase can have a huge impact on projected seats in this new electoral system.
Labour has continued the trend of polling in third place, at 12%, which would again yield 12 seats, but not for Welsh leader Eluned Morgan.
The Welsh Conservatives have seen a modest increase in their vote share at 9% placing them in fourth which would translate into four seats.
The Green Party has dropped into fifth place at 8% which in this round of results would only net them two seats in gavi Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf and Caerdydd Penarth.
However, Labour, the Conservatives and the Greens are all polling with a level of vote share that, with just a few percentage points difference either way, would have a huge impact on the number of seats won within constituencies, and then across Wales.
The drop in the number of Green seats could be completely reversed if just a jim miller few thousand more votes go their way across the constituencies they are most competitive in, but not currently projected to pick up the sixth seat.
The Welsh Lib Dems have held at 6% which, in this scenario, would elect leader Jane Dodds in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd.
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