🏡 Happy May 1st! Weekly Mortgage Market Update
With Joe & Chris – The Murphy Whitlock Group
Joe and Chris are back for another weekly update, and while it wasn’t the craziest news cycle, there were definitely a few major themes worth watching as we head deeper into spring.
🌍 Iran Conflict Still Driving Volatility
The biggest wildcard in the market continues to be the ongoing Iran conflict.
Geopolitical tension is still adding volatility to mortgage rates
Energy prices remain a key inflation driver
There is some chatter about possible diplomatic progress, but as always… nobody really knows
For now, this remains one of the biggest external factors influencing rates.
🏛️ Powell’s Final Fed Meeting – Big Dissension
This week marked Jerome Powell’s final Fed meeting / press conference as Fed Chair.
As expected:
No rate change
But the real headline:
👉 Four Fed committee members dissented
That’s a huge development—and something we haven’t really seen in decades.
This ausar thompson brett goldstein tells us:
There’s significant disagreement inside the Fed
Some members see the case for cuts
Others may still be worried about inflation and possibly even hikes
With Kevin Warsh preparing to step in, future Fed policy will be one of the hottest topics in housing and finance.
📈 asuka PCE Inflation Jumps – But Context Matters
We also got fresh PCE inflation data this week:
Previous YoY: 2.8%
New YoY: 3.5%
Yes, that’s a meaningful jump—but much of it appears tied to:
Higher energy prices
Oil volatility
Broader geopolitical pressures
So while inflation moved higher, the market wasn’t entirely shocked.
🏠 Housing Market Data Better Than Sentiment
Despite all the negativity out there, this week’s housing data actually showed some encouraging trends:
Reuters & Redfin: Home sales came in better than expected
Home price appreciation is still positive
Appreciation has slowed, but values are still generally moving upward
Bottom line:
The actual market data is healthier than the public sentiment would suggest.
💰 Mortgage Rate Outlook - Joe's Full Breakdown of current Rates!
Rates remain elevated, but:
Still lower than last year
More stable than recent highs
Highly sensitive to geopolitics and Fed transition
🎯 Final Takeaway
This market continues to be shaped by a strange mix of:
Global conflict
Energy prices
Fed uncertainty
Surprisingly resilient housing data
The sentiment may feel negative, but the real numbers are telling a more balanced story.
🏇 Weekend Notes:
Enjoy the Kentucky Derby, have a fantastic weekend, and as always—it was great seeing baby Jordan make another appearance on the Market Update.
Glad the Whitlock family is healthy, happy, and growing!
