Trump's been hunting one Republican senator since January 6, 2021. The money already wrote the obituary, star citizen but the real trade isn't on Bill Cassidy.
Bill Cassidy is currently trading at $0.02 to win his own Republican Senate primary on Saturday in Louisiana. The polls have him in the low to mid 20s. The prediction markets buried him four years ago. That gap is the entire story and Stu breaks it all down.
In this episode:
- The full Cassidy story: from the January 6 impeachment vote, to the closed-primary trapdoor, to the RFK Jr. Faustian bargain, to the Trump endorsement of Julia Letlow before she had even announced she was running.
- The seven Republican senators who voted to convict, and where each of them is five years later.
- Why the trade now isn't on Cassidy. It's on whether Letlow clears 50% outright Saturday night, currently sitting at 9 cents and paying roughly ten times your money if it lands.
- The cleanest cross-platform arb on the board this week: Jamie Davis Jr. is 78 cents on Polymarket and roughly 90 on Kalshi for the Louisiana Democratic primary. Same outcome. Different price.
- Listener questions on starting small, on volume vs. value, and on the Minnesota Bill 4760 attempt to ban prediction markets entirely.
- One I Kinda Like: Carano seal team vs. Rousey on Netflix Saturday night. The 19% line on Carano and why the sportsbook flow agrees.
If you understand incentives, you can understand outcomes.
CHAPTERS
[00:00] The setup
[00:03] The Cassidy story, piece by piece
[00:20] What the market sees
[00:23] The 9% trade and the cross-platform arb
[00:29] Listener questions: start small, value over volume
[00:38] One I Kinda Like: Carano vs. Rousey
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YOUR TURN
If a senator from your own state crossed the President of his own party four years ago, what would your money give him to win his next primary?
Predictable with Stu Burguiere is a smarter way to follow the news.
We break down the biggest stories using prediction markets to show what’s actually likely to happen, not just what people are saying. Understand the incentives. Spot the mispricing. Take a position.
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