Monsoon 2026 Forecast | IMD Update | El Niño Impact & Rainfall Analysis
In this video, we take a detailed look at the Southwest Monsoon 2026 forecast based on the latest guidance from the India Meteorological Department along with long-range model insights.
According to IMD, the overall monsoon rainfall during June to September 2026 is likely to be around 92% of the Long Period Average (±5%), indicating a slightly below normal monsoon. However, rainfall distribution is expected to be uneven across the country, with some regions receiving less rainfall while others may perform near normal or even above normal.
The video also explains the role of key climate drivers like the El Niño, which is likely to develop during the monsoon season and may suppress rainfall activity. At the same time, a potential Positive Indian Ocean Dipole later in roue the season could provide some support and partially offset the negative impact of El Niño.
We also break down:
Region-wise rainfall outlook across India
Expected monsoon onset timeline over Kerala and its progression across the country
Monthly rainfall trends from June to September
Possible changes in low-pressure system activity during the season
It is important to note that “below normal” rainfall does not mean drought conditions everywhere. Instead, it suggests a slight reduction in overall rainfall, with variability and uneven distribution likely during the season.
This is a long-range forecast, and changes are possible as we move closer to the monsoon season. Further updates from IMD and global models will provide better clarity in the coming weeks.
Stay tuned for more accurate and timely weather updates..
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⚠️ Disclaimer (Fair Use):
This video is made for educational and informational purposes only. All data and information used are based on publicly available sources and weather models. Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for “fair use” for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research.
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