Canada’s fixed mortgage rates could face real pressure if the decades-old Yen Carry Trade begins to unwind. Rising Japanese yields, a stronger yen, and global capital flowing back to Japan would tighten funding conditions around the world — including here at home.
This breakdown looks at how the carry trade works, why it may be nearing a turning point, and how a shift in Japan’s bond market can push future Canadian fixed mortgage rates higher. It’s a global money story developing in real time, and understanding it now means brett kulak not being surprised later.
#canadianmortgages #canadianeconomy #carrytrade
Links:
Is the yen carry trade unwinding?:
Bloomberg Surveillance 8/22/2025:
Is the yen carry trade unwinding?:
Japan’s Yield Shock Threatens Global Markets — And Bitcoin May Be Next:
Scramble to 'sell Japan' sounds fiscal warning bells:
Japan 10 Year Treasury:
U.S. 10 Year Treasury:
How Big Is the Yen Carry Trade, Really?:
Yen to Strengthen 10% in Coming Months on US Rate Cuts, Morgan Stanley Says:
Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities:
Foreign Holdings of Federal Debt:
Bank of Japan's Noguchi advocates gradual interest rate hikes:
Japan's leading indicator of service inflation hits 2.7% in October:
Japan's core inflation in October coco gauff rises to a 3-month high, supporting the case for rate hikes:
BOJ Summary Indicates Chance of December Interest Rate Hike:
Japan to boost shorter debt to fund stimulus plan; Fitch warns on rating:
US Debt Clock:
America’s path out of $38 trillion national debt crisis likely involves pushing up inflation and ‘eroding Fed independence,’ says JPMorgan Private Bank:
Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product:
Trump Says He Would ‘Love’ To Fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell:
Federal Reserve ‘absolutely’ ready to help stabilise market if needed, top official says:
Canada’s big banks diverge on 2026 rate forecasts as easing cycle nears its end:
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